The American withdrawal into itself and its possible effects on the global system!
The American withdrawal into itself and its possible effects on the global system!
A translation assisted by Google
translation and Antidote of our text in French « Le
repli sur soi états-unien et ses effets possibles sur le système
mondial ! »
Societas Criticus, revue de critique sociale et politique, Vol. 27-01/26-05, Essai : www.societascriticus.com
Michel Handfield, M.Sc. Sociologie (2025-02-11)
Since Donald Trump's return to the presidency of the United States, we have been treated to a series of shocking statements and decrees, and not the least, such as withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization; withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement; accelerating the exploitation of energy resources; reviving the oil and mining industry (1); withdrawing the United States from several UN bodies (2); withdrawing the United States from the Human Rights Council (3); "launching sanctions against the International Criminal Court" (4) and several others.
Trump is very prolific in destabilizing his neighbours and partners, such as Canada and Mexico, which he threatens with tariffs on their products despite the existing free-trade agreement between these three countries. And the world is not paying anything to wait, with threats regarding international trade (5) and his new proposal of “a takeover of the Gaza Strip by the United States to develop it economically, in concert with the “permanent” displacement of all the Palestinians who live there” (6).
An isolationist, he rejects everything that was done before him as if he had the innate truth. He does not recognize the world we are in and which requires clear rules of surveillance and international cooperation to respond to the current and future problems that threaten us. Just think of pollution, climate change and the risks of future pandemics. Their effects will not stop at the borders of lax countries, but will impact all countries, regardless of their responsibilities in these problems. This is why we need not only agreements like the Paris agreement, but the involvement of international bodies, such as the UN, the World Health Organization, and the International Criminal Court, all threatened by Donald Trump, to anticipate and monitor these threats and coordinate actions to resolve them. (7) Here, Trumpist isolationism does not bode well and Donald Trump is leading the United States to join the dictators who do as they please without regard to their neighbours and the international community. He is moving towards a denial of international law.
Speaking of dictators, we see that they often have expansionist aims and control of the areas that border them.
Xi Jinping has designs on Taiwan; Putin, as we have known for a long time, wants Ukraine and perhaps to take back some former socialist republics; then Trump, finally, has designs on Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada (8) and now the Palestinian territory to extend the influence of the United States on America and certain parts of the world so as not to see its influence diminish in the face of the designs of China and Russia as new dominant actors on the international scene.
It is no coincidence that Donald Trump recently targeted the BRICS+ (9) with the threat of imposing “ “100%” customs duties ” on them (10). This is because the BRICS+ allows for rapprochements between China and Russia with Asia, Africa and South America to compete with the G7.
If we are told about multilateralism to make things happen better (the United States, the European Community, Russia, China and India to name only the main current players), we can nevertheless see the emergence of a new bilateralism between the BRICS+ and the European Community/NATO.
In this new world that is being reshaped, the United States seems, however, to be turning in on itself and saying "there is us and the others" in a surge of authoritarianism and narcissism (11) that goes beyond anything we have seen so far. We are therefore moving away from my dream of a Parliament of America like that of the European Parliament (see my text in Appendix 1).
As it will be increasingly difficult to rely on the United States, unless they have a particular interest in doing so, doing business with them will become negotiable on a piecemeal basis. This will therefore change a lot of things and countries like Canada and Mexico will have to look towards new alliances. As we will not be the only ones to do so, this will necessarily upset the current alignments: particularly the European Community and NATO, but also the BRICS+, which brings together countries wanting to compete with the neo-American economic system (12) which has been dominant until now (13).
With the Trumpian revolution, which is also spreading to Europe (14), all this risks changing profoundly, despite the fact that Marine Le Pen said that "France cannot be subject to the United States" (15). This is because, for several right-wing parties, Trumpism is first and foremost a pure and hard nationalism: political-economic nationalism; tight control of immigration and even more so of refugees; reduced interest in what is happening abroad if they do not find a particular interest in it; rationalization of the financing of international organizations and foreign aid, etc. As Valentin Bontemps writes:
"(…) meeting in Madrid, the leaders of the far-right parliamentary group Patriots for Europe, led by Viktor Orbán and Marine Le Pen, called on Saturday for a "180 degree turn" in European policy, in the wake of the Trumpist wave." (16)
The European Union will have some work to do to find a balance between left and right to remain functional. Will it even be able to maintain the unity of its component countries or will some prefer to leave? The question arises.
If Russia had not returned to authoritarianism, BRICS+ could have become an alternative for some countries seeking new alliances, leaving Donald Trump’s United States isolated. But Putin’s more belligerent behaviour certainly puts off many, even if China is trying to calm things down a bit for obvious economic reasons: it needs the global market.
Even though Marine Le Pen said that “France cannot be subjugated to the United States” (already quoted above), some leaders of European, South American and African countries who align themselves with Trumpism could also align themselves with the United States and become its vassal in a new group of right-wing countries. This could notably be the case of Argentina, Javier Milei, having “often been compared to Donald Trump, of whom he is one of the admirers.” (17) It could also be that of Brazil if Jair Bolsonaro were to regain power. (18) In Europe, could Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, Giorgia Meloni and a few others come to prefer a new economic union built around a Trumpist United States if that became possible? (19) To be continued.
It is difficult to make any predictions, however, since the real unknown is Donald Trump’s behaviour. One day he invites the President of China, Xi Jinping, to his inauguration (20), a few days later he imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States (21). One day, he suspends tariffs for a month on Mexico and Canada, a few days later, he imposes a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. In short, how can you sign an agreement if you are not sure that he will not change his mind some time later? Everything seems possible, even a coup d’état, on his part. The United States could become a right-wing dictatorship under Donald Trump, which is not desired, but is within the realm of possibility.
It is in this changing world, with nationalist, totalitarian and extremist movements (left and right) stronger than ever, that we are looking for new points of balance. With actors who are leaving existing agreements (like the United States) and others who would like to enter them (like Ukraine, which would like to become a member of NATO). With a liberal centre, often stable, but which seems boring to voters. They therefore vote less and less, leaving more and more extremists to decide governments.
Thus, predictions are becoming less and less possible at the international level. But we can still put forward some ideas, which are as follows.
First, since Canada is already in NATO, it could also try to conclude an entry agreement into the European Union, as Andrew Coyne suggested in the Globe and Mail, where he concluded a text by saying, “All of which leaves me with just one question: Can we join Europe?” (22) Then, a few weeks later, The Economist made the same diagnosis: “Why Canada should join the EU. Europe needs space and resources, Canada needs people. Let’s deal.” (23) Moreover, since we already have a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Europe (24) and some shared history, it should be possible, I suppose.
Secondly, since we share the same head of state as England and have already "begun negotiations with a view to concluding a free trade agreement (FTA)" with the United Kingdom (25), would it be possible to do the same thing on the Commonwealth side? The question arises because if we keep and maintain this structure, it should allow us certain opportunities and it would seem to be a win-win in the event of a closure, even partial, of the US market.
Thirdly, how will the European Community evolve with the shift to the rights of some countries? Would some be tempted to leave the European Community and make new alliances, for example, with the more right-wing United States? This is certainly not impossible if we think of England, which left it with BREXIT. So, will the European Community still be a European Community?
Fourth, could a new alliance of liberal democratic countries (26) replace the European Community if it is becoming less and less European? It could then include countries like Canada, but also other continents. Why not, also, certain states of the United States that could choose to become independent or form a new union? With Donald Trump's impulsive behaviour, if we don't know where the United States is going tomorrow, we know even less where it will be in four years. So everything is on the table.
In conclusion…
Will we have the United States withdrawn from itself or a new alliance of right-wing countries around the United States? Will some democratic states still be in the United States or will they have declared their independence? Will we have a dysfunctional European Community or a new alliance of liberal countries? Will the BRICS+ have new members, particularly in South America? These questions arise because the behaviour of the Trump administration risks bringing about many political, social and economic rearrangements to find a new global balance in the coming years. We are therefore entering a period of uncertainty, but also new possibilities because Donald Trump is forcing a new shuffle of the deck. For those who like politics and strategy, there will be plenty to observe. It will take strong leaders to make reasonable decisions without any headbutting either. It will be better to think than to be impulsive. Being in more than one alliance than putting all your eggs in one basket. The politician had let the economy go outside its zone of influence and paid the price. We must make alliances in more than one network, as companies have done, so as not to be dependent and at the mercy of a single country/market in the future if we know how to learn the lessons of History.
Notes (in French)
1. J’ai tiré ces décrets du texte de Laurianne Croteau, Voici tous les décrets signés par Donald Trump, 22 janvier 2025, mis à jour le 4 février 2025, qui en fait la mise à jour sur le site de Radio-Canada :
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2025/decrets-trump-president-immigration-economie/
2. Agence France-Presse, Nouveau décret pour retirer les États-Unis de plusieurs instances de l’ONU, La Presse, 4 février 2025 :
3. AFP, Donald Trump signe un décret pour retirer les États-Unis du Conseil des droits de l’Homme, Le Journal de Québec, 4 février 2025 :
4. Agence France-Presse, Donald Trump lance des sanctions contre la Cour pénale internationale, Radio-Canada, 7 février 2025 :
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2138709/donald-trump-sanctions-cpi
5. Agence France-Presse, Les États-Unis suspendent « jusqu’à nouvel ordre » la livraison des colis chinois, Radio-Canada, 2025-02-05:
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2138184/usps-etats-unis-livraison-colis-chine-poste
6. Sophie-Hélène Lebeuf, Trump veut faire de la bande de Gaza la « riviera du Proche-Orient », Radio-Canada, 4 février 2025 :
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2138080/donald-trump-palestiniens-gaza-netanyahou
7. Ce, même si ces instances manquent de pouvoirs de coercitions envers les États qui font preuve de négligence et d’irresponsabilités envers les autres États.
8. De ce qu’on croyait d’abord être une farce, on s’aperçoit maintenant que Trump est de plus en plus sérieux dans son idée de faire du Canada le 51e État des États-Unis, ne serait-ce que pour mettre la main sur nos ressources naturelles et de minéraux critiques. Pensons à l’eau, au pétrole et aux terres rares.
Plusieurs textes en ont parlé. Je n’en cite qu’un : Mylène Crête, 51e État des États-Unis. Trump est sérieux, dit Trudeau, La Presse, 7 février 2025 :
9. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS%2B
10. Agence France-Presse, Trump menace d’imposer aux BRICS des droits de douane « à 100 % », La Presse, 31 janvier 2025 :
11. Je pense ici au livre de Marie-France Hirigoyen, 2019, Les Narcisse, Ils ont pris le pouvoir, Paris : La Découverte.
12. Albert, Michel, 1991, Capitalisme contre capitalisme, Paris : Seuil, L’Histoire immédiate. Seuil (réédition numérique FeniXX).
13. Dans l’article sur les BRICS+ on parle plutôt « de rivaliser avec le Groupe des sept (le G7) » (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS%2B). Mais, je pense que c’est plus que cela : c’était d’abord de rivaliser avec les États-Unis qui avaient une mainmise sur le système économique international.
14. Valentin Bontemps - Agence France-Presse à Madrid, « Make Europe Great Again »: l’extrême droite européenne veut suivre la « tornade Trump », Le Devoir, 9 février 2025 :
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid.
17. Gilles Biassette, Présidentielle en Argentine : Javier Milei, un Donald Trump sud-américain?, La Croix, 20/11/2023 :
18. Jean-Mathieu Albertin, « On compte beaucoup sur la victoire de Trump » : au Brésil, les partisans de Jair Bolsonaro reprennent espoir, Radio France, franceinfo, 18/11/2024 :
19. J’ai pris ces noms dans l’article de Valentin Bontemps - Agence France-Presse à Madrid, Op. Cit.
20. Aurélie Loek, Extrême droite française, patrons de la tech… les invités de la cérémonie d'investiture de Donald Trump, TF1/info, 2025-01-20 :
21. Myriam LEMETAYER avec Isabel KUA à Pékin pour l’Agence France-Presse, La Chine réplique à Trump après l’application des taxes américaines, La Presse, 4 février 2025 :
22. Andrew Coyne, Canada is far from ready for the chaos coming our way, The Globe and Mail, November 13, 2024 :
23. Europe/Charlemagne, Why Canada should join the EU. Europe needs space and resources, Canada needs people. Let’s deal, Jan 2nd 2025, in The Economist (North America, 4 jan 2025) p. 37 :
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/01/02/why-canada-should-join-the-eu
24. Accord économique et commercial global (AECG) entre le Canada et l’Union européenne (UE) :
- https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accord_économique_et_commercial_global
25. Accord de libre-échange entre le Canada et le Royaume-Uni :
26. Quand je pose cette question, je pense ici au texte de Karel Mayrand, Administration Trump II : le divorce du capitalisme et de la démocratie libérale, L’actualité, 23 janvier 2025 :
Annexe 1
This text can be found in Societas Criticus, Vol 14 no 8. 2012-08-26 – 2012-09-25: https://collections.banq.qc.ca/ark:/52327/bs2226464
For a Parliament of America (translation of Pour un Parlement de l’Amérique)
Michel
Handfield, M.Sc. Sociology
After searching, because memory sometimes forgets, this text does not seem to have been published anywhere other than on the political blog of Societas Criticus, "Délinkan Politique", which has since become our political archive page: "Criticus Politikos". [Editor's note: These pages no longer exist now.]
Friday, December 3, 1999
The end of 1999 was marked by debates and questions concerning the referendum rules in Quebec and the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. These events, seemingly far away, were nevertheless significant of a malaise and showed a need for reform. On the one hand, Jean Chrétien said he was acting to avoid the fragmentation of Canada and, on the other hand, the WTO negotiations seemed to mean the fragmentation of the power and sovereignty of existing states. This had the merit of raising the need for reform in America.
We must set up an American parliament (in the continental sense of the term) as there is a European parliament because the trend that is emerging is that of regionalism and continental blocks. In these conditions, America will not be able to afford to be divided for much longer. It will even have to establish continental standards in many areas, such as the environment and social protections. We must also establish common minimum standards to protect citizens throughout America and think of new social measures to ensure the proper functioning of the economic system - because if we need fewer people to produce, we do need consumers to keep the economy going!
At the same time, we must not crush regional dynamics, which are a guarantee of creativity. We must therefore think of new structures similar to those that Europe has equipped itself with continental, national and regional responsibilities. We must realize that we are Americans (in the same way that the French, Italians or Belgians are Europeans) and stop identifying only Americans as Americans of the United States. In short, we must reappropriate America for the good of all of us!
Conclusion
Now that you have read my past opinions, are they still relevant in your opinion? Should I run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada? Would you support me in such an adventure? Naturally, I say this with a touch of humour, because I do not have the necessary connections or experience in active politics, but I admit that political experience would sometimes please me. Imagine doing for America what was done in Europe. Making our American neighbours understand that they are not the only ones on this continent and that we are neither their servants nor their stooges, much less servile. We are partners and equals! What a dream!
Annexe 2 : certains textes de Societas Criticus autour de ce sujet
Michel Handfield, M.Sc. Sociologie, États-Unis : Tout est dans tout !, Societas Criticus, revue de critique sociale et politique, Vol. 26-04, Éditos :
https://collections.banq.qc.ca/document/VNMHdriF800jPIpGIwrnpA
Michel Handfield, M.Sc. Scociologie, Édito Facebook : Retour de la bipolarité? On est rendu ailleurs, Societas Criticus, Vol. 25-02 :
https://numerique.banq.qc.ca/patrimoine/details/52327/61248?docref=K4M9Q-TL6QpYdCHp2bjWOQ
Michel Handfield, M.Sc. Sociologie, Le retour des fantômes de l’ex-U.R.S.S., Societas Criticus, Vol. 24-02, Éditos :
https://numerique.banq.qc.ca/patrimoine/details/52327/61248?docref=dvSFZGd3rhkQSNnX6LN58Q
Michel Handfield, M.Sc. Sociologie, Faut-il créer un nouvel ordre mondial?, Societas Criticus, Vol. 24-06, Essai :
https://numerique.banq.qc.ca/patrimoine/details/52327/61248?docref=2Fti_2fGdpQ950p9iGuvXw
Michel Handfield, Ce virage de Québec Solidaire me pose problème – J’y parle aussi de mon idée d’un Parlement d'Amérique, Un Édito Facebook, Societas Criticus, Vol. 21-05 :
https://numerique.banq.qc.ca/patrimoine/details/52327/61248?docref=IzB3lwqYgLQBb8RHbBxVdA
Michel Handfield, M.Sc. Sociologie, Le piège de l'autocratie, Le Devoir, 13 janvier 2024 : https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/idees/805277/idees-piege-autocratie
Tous les numéros de Societas Criticus sont aussi disponibles à Bibliothèque et Archives Canada :
https://epe.lac-bac.gc.ca/100/201/300/societas_criticus/